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🪨 The gravity of big stocks in a bear market

Thursday, 2 June 2022

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Happy Thursday. Today's trivia: How much are a quarter-pound hot dog and a 20 oz. soda from Costco today? a. $1.50, b. $5.50, c. $10.50. Follow the wave 🌊 below for the answer.

Zooming in on our money topics for today 🔎:

  • The gravity of big stocks in a bear market
  • First-time US home buyer mortgage programs
  • Leveraging family plans for your subscriptions   

INVESTING & THE MARKETS

The Gravity of Big Stocks in a Bear Market

The Pareto Principle states that 80% of outcomes come from 20% of causes, and you’ve likely heard many variations of this maxim applied to lots of different things, like 20% of employees doing 80% of the work.

Well, the movement of the stock market actually kind of loosely follows a similar principle, where a tiny aristocracy of stocks tends to influence most of its movement. Pretty scary, right?

They give and take away

Heading into 2022, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Google and Meta accounted for a whopping 25% of the S&P 500’s weight—that’s a tech-heavy diet. These stocks were at the forefront of the index’s massive gains throughout 2020 and 2021, yet now, they’re the loss leaders.

  • Half the carnage: Bear with us, the data does lag a bit, but the principle remains. As of a couple weeks ago, just 8 stocks had accounted for almost 7% of the S&P’s total 13.7% drop this year, and the remaining 497 stocks contributed the other 6% or so. That’s… lopsided. 
  • Power and influence: The S&P’s top 3 holdings are down an average of 25.4% at the time of writing, yet there are other noteworthy holdings in this index that are up this year, like Kroger up 15%, T-Mobile up 16%, Cigna up almost 15%, or Chevron nearly 50% higher. Although most holdings are down, it’s clear the top-weighted stocks are carrying the torch. 
  • The market cap index variety adds 10 pounds: If you have an investment idea, there’s probably an ETF for that. So yes, we have an ETF that tracks an equally weighted version of the S&P 500. And in comparison to its traditional market-cap-weighted counterpart, it’s down about 9.7% relative to the $SPY’s 15%+ drop.

What to do with this info?

Generally, investing in a broad market index fund that tracks something like the S&P 500 is well-regarded and a strategy that can bring stable and sustainable returns over the long run. However, the past isn’t indicative of the future, and if what you’re seeing right now makes you uneasy, you might consider exploring alternative allocation strategies, like equal-weighting indexes. 

And while dollar-cost-averaging (DCA) your way into big stock indexes is a tested and proven strategy over long periods of time, if your time horizon is shorter, it may pay to look at health indicators such as the CAPE ratio in uncertain times.

Take this related lesson on this topic and earn Dibs 🟡 while you're at it:

HOUSING

First-Time US Home Buyer Mortgage Programs

It’s a relatively expensive time to buy a home, and an especially uncertain time to be a first-time homebuyer. In a housing market that’s got a lot of us apprehensive, it can be hard to discern what to buy, or whether it’s a good time to buy at all. 

Luckily, the US government does recognize this and loves to prop up the good ole’ “American Dream” of buying a home, no matter how expensive it gets, apparently. Subsequently, there are lots of programs out there designed specifically to help first-time homebuyers navigate this process.

So, what are our options?

FHA Loans: The Federal Housing Administration (FHA) exists to help protect lenders against losses by insuring their mortgages, but they also help out first-time homebuyers who might not qualify for a conventional loan. With an FHA loan, you can put down as little as 3.5%, and have a credit score as low as 580. These loans require a debt to income ratio of less than 43%, a steady history of employment, and private mortgage insurance (PMI) of course. 

Fannie Mae loans: The difference between an FHA loan and a Fannie Mae conventional loan is that instead of being backed by the FHA, the loan is insured by the lenders themselves. FM loans have slightly more stringent requirements than their FHA alternative, requiring a credit score of 620+, but also allowing a slightly lower down payment of 3%. PMI is still required, but it can be canceled once you’ve surpassed having 20% equity in the home. 

Freddie Mac loans: Another low down payment (3%) option, loans that conform to Freddie Mac’s standards are slightly more particular than Fannie Mae’s, but still a solid option for first-time buyers. Requirements include a higher credit score of 660, 3% down, and an income that’s no more than 80% of your local median.

Good neighbor next door loans: If you’re a teacher, law enforcement officer, emergency medical technician or firefighter, you might qualify for this really cool opportunity to own a home. Essentially, the US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) selects certain properties in “revitalization areas” and lists them exclusively through this program, offering applicants 50% off the home’s list price, only requiring a credit score of 500, and a down payment as low as $100. What’s the catch? Not much, you just have to agree to live in the property for at least 36 months as your primary residence. 

VA loans: VA loans are loans backed by the US Department of Veterans Affairs. They offer the opportunity for active and retired military members and their spouses to qualify for a home loan with a 0% down payment, no credit requirements (although lenders may have some), verifiable income, and pay a loan origination fee of up to 2.3%. 

USDA loans: USDA loans are 0% down payment, 100% funded loans that are backed by the US Department of Agriculture and available to qualified applicants living in a “designated rural area.” The catch? You’ll need a credit score of roughly 640+, pay a 1% “funding” fee, and a 0.35% annual fee baked into your payments.

Take this related lesson on this topic and earn Dibs 🟡 while you're at it:

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MONEY TIPS

Leveraging Family Plans for Your Subscriptions

Giphy—Friends

Subscriptions are the new trend in the world of online shopping and intangible products. Recurring revenue? Investors love that, and so do business owners. Subscriptions are often presented as affordable, seeming like a reasonably small amount paid each month, but lately that affordability has been slipping away.

Quiet increases: Basic Netflix? A subtle $8.99 to $9.99 increase. Amazon’s free shipping + video Prime membership? Jumped $20 from $119 to $139. Spotify, Disney, and countless other services have all also been nudging their rates northward too.

A family plan to reduce costs—some good deals

  • Apple: We know buying in bulk can reduce the cost of each individual product, and family plans are no different. Apple, like many, offers products like its Apple One bundle that offers an array of Apple essentials like extra iCloud storage, Apple Music, Fitness+, and others. The family plan is only $5 more per month than the individual plan ($19.95) and allows sharing with up to 5 users. 
  • Google: The standard Google One plan can be had for just $2.99 a month, and comes with 200GB of storage and other benefits. For only $1 more per month, you can share 200GB with up to 5 other people. 
  • Netflix: The basic Netflix plan is $9.99, allowing only 1 device to be using it at a time, whereas the premium plan is $19.99, and allows up to 4 devices. Breaking it down, 4 people sharing Netflix premium can essentially reduce your monthly cost to $4.99, half off the basic plan.

🔥 TODAY'S MOVERS & SHAKERS

  • Chewy (+20%), an online retailer of pet food and other pet-related products, is up today as its earnings report beat the street; the company reported a quarterly profit of 4 cents per share vs. a 14 cents per share loss expected by Wall Street analysts
  • Tesla (+7%) stock is up today despite polarizing statements Elon Musk made just yesterday about remote work as"no longer acceptable" at the company; btw, Twitter (+2.9%) announced in March that employees are allowed to work remotely forever (Yahoo)
  • Hewlett Packard Enterprise (-5.3%) as the enterprise computing company's earnings and revenue fell short of Wall Street forecasts.
  • Bitcoin (+4.3%) to $30,258.50 (5D)
  • Ethereum (+1.6%) to $1,818.76 (5D)

This commentary is as of 9:30 am PDT. 

🌊 BY THE WAY

  •  🌭 Answer. "When we introduced the hot dog-soda combo in the mid-'80s, it was $1.50. The price today is $1.50, and we have no plans to increase the price at this time," said Costco CFO Richard Galanti on the company's May 26, 2022 earnings call. (Yahoo)

  • 🖼️ Former OpenSea exec charged with insider trading of NFTs—crypto's first-ever such indictment (TechCrunch)
  • 🏡 ICYMI. First-time home buyer savings accounts (Finny)
  • 🙋‍♀️ Ask the Finny team your personal finance question you'd want us to cover here in The Gist. For submitting one you'll earn 100 Dibs; if your question gets selected, you'll earn 1000 Dibs 🟡 (Email us)
  • Finny lesson of the day: Should you buy a home or rent instead? We break it down in this 6-min quiz-based microlesson:

Finny is a financial education platform on a mission to make your money work for you. We offer a customized financial learning platform through bite-size, jargon-free lessons, money trends & insights to teams & companies.

The Gist is Finny's twice a week (Tues & Thurs) newsletter covering personal finance & investing insights and money trends. Finny does not offer investment and stock advice or endorsements. The Gist content team: Austin PayneOthmane ZiziChihee Kim

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