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📢 Is losing $2.6 trillion of market value good news?

Tuesday, 5 April 2022

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April 05, 2022 View online | Sign up
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Good day. The collective effort of a large number of individuals who pool small amounts of capital to finance a new or existing business venture is called: a. staking, b. crowdfunding, c. kickstarting. Follow the wave 🌊 below for the answer.

Here are today's finance topics:

  • Volatility & uncertainty has companies postponing public debuts
  • Is the bond market losing $2.6 trillion good news?
  • Are NFTs securities?

MARKETS

Volatility and Uncertainty Has Companies Postponing Public Debuts

Going public certainly isn’t for every company, as it comes with stringent disclosure requirements and quick reporting periods. Nevertheless, it’s a prime goal for many companies, not least because early investors often want an avenue to cash out their shares. 

Lately though, fewer and fewer businesses have been willing to venture into the tumultuous waters that public ownership can bring, and it’s largely because the seas of the stock market have been choppy as ever these last few months.

Historically speaking

After the late 90s IPO surge, things cooled off significantly throughout the first two decades of the century. A typical year in this time frame saw anywhere from 100 to 300 companies go public—a seemingly reasonable number of newcomers in the public markets per year.

Well, that was up until 2020 when we saw the most public offerings since 1999—431 to be exact. But that’s nothing compared to the nearly 1,000 companies that went public in 2021, a historic amount. 

And of those companies that went public in 2021, a whopping 63% of them did so via a SPAC, a figure we hadn’t even come close to up until 2020.

Nowadays though

We might’ve just flown too close to the sun these last couple of years because this year has been extremely dry in comparison. Thus far in 2022, only 64 companies have gone public, with 83% of them via SPAC acquisitions, an extremely high benchmark for the alternative IPO option. 

The proof is in the funds raised, too. Just $65 billion have been raised via IPO globally this year, a stark discrepancy from the $219 billion seen throughout the first few months of 2021, and an almost 75% drop.

The factors that affect us too

This might all be seemingly irrelevant news considering most of us aren’t on the verge of taking a business to the public marketplace, but the reasons behind this slump impact us all as investors. 

  • Broad market conditions have been extremely iffy in Q1 of ‘22 with volatility being the norm. And global macroeconomic affairs don’t make things any easier, with things like historic inflation and geopolitical conflict coming together to create an economic Cat 5 hurricane of uncertainty.
  • It’s not just companies vying to go public who are suffering as institutional players go risk-off, but regular investors like us and anyone who attempts to invest in the market, actively or not. 
  • And with every action there is a reaction, though. In these times of “stagflation,” where strong job growth holds hands with inflation and recession fears, it is fair to assume that the IPO market will snap back. That’s because the line of companies ripe for an IPO is growing ever longer in anticipation of healthier market conditions.

Perhaps the biggest takeaway for most of us will simply be a test of emotional intelligence and finding out truly how grounded we’re able to be until the market does flip. While it’s a great time to reassess your strategy if you’re invested in growth stocks and have a short-term horizon, it can also be smart to double down on patience if you are playing the long game.

INVESTING

Is The Bond Market Losing $2.6 Trillion Good News?

Despite their mundaneness, we know it’s paramount for us all to understand the importance of bonds and the pivotal roles that they can play in the economy.

Since early 2021, the global aggregate bond market has lost trillions of dollars in an unprecedented slump. And while exceptions are the rule these days, this is a noteworthy event, worth inquiring about.

The bond bear market 

Bond investors are a community mostly made up of fund managers, and the occasional connoisseur who’s looking for a sure rate of return on a safe asset. For the most part, retail traders don’t fool with them, and most individual bond exposure comes indirectly through retirement funds.

And yet, still there was a sell-off of $2.6 trillion over the last 14 months. Why?

  • To put it simply, inflation doesn’t favor bond investors, because it can easily begin to eat away at the narrow returns bonds afford compared to other securities, and a high inflation rate can quickly render your bond investment a net negative. 
  • The other leading factor here is rising interest rates, which are typically inversely correlated to the price of fixed-rate assets like bonds. With rates headed north, bond prices have dipped, thus leading to higher yields, which are at their highest point since 2019.

U.S. 10 Year Treasury

Source: CNBC

Is this even a bad thing though?

The bond market is not the stock market, and a bear market here is much simpler to capitalize on for the average investor. With bond prices dropping and rates rising, now may be a good time to lock in a higher rate of return on your bond investment, or perhaps an even higher one in the near future if the trend continues. 

Although there is a slight risk that inflation runs on perpetually and your investment never outruns it, the odds of this happening are slim, and for most considering getting into bonds, it may be the prudent choice to plow some money into them anyway.

🧭 Related lesson on this topic:

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CRYPTO & NFTS

Are NFTs Securities?

Securities are fungible financial instruments (interchangeable for equivalent ones) that have monetary value. They come in two flavors, debt and equity. Equity represents ownership in something like a public company, and debt securities essentially represent a loan that must be paid back to you, like a bond or a certificate of deposit (CD).

So how about NFTs? They’re supposedly non-fungible, so does that mean they’re safe? Not necessarily, and the SEC is scrutinizing them, too. On Gary Gensler’s path to better regulation, the agency leaves no nascent market unscathed.

The commission is seemingly planning to look more closely at NFTs in the coming months, and more specifically, fractional tokens. These are supposed to allow people to own fractions of a painting or a sports card. But if the SEC’s findings determine that NFTs like this have aspects too similar to securities, where people use them to fundraise, they may very well become regulated.

What might that mean?

  • If certain NFT projects begin to fall into the security classification after a closer look, investors and speculators alike may benefit from keeping a watchful eye out for the consequences of this potentiality. 
  • Being deemed a security would subject these projects to the same reporting requirements as equities, which should be fine, as long as everything is truly above board.

🧭 Related lesson on this topic:

🔥 TODAY'S MOVERS & SHAKERS

  • First Solar (-4%) was downgraded by Bank of America Securities as the company's growth prospects may be overly optimistic
  • Carnival (+3.5%) reported that the 7-day period from March 28 to April 3 was the busiest for new cruise bookings in the firm’s history
  • Twitter (+5.5%) continues its ascent (from yesterday’s 27% gain) with Elon Musk’s 9.2% stake in the company
  • Bitcoin (BTC) -1.8% to $45,765.50
  • Ethereum (ETH) +0.5% to $3,442.68

This commentary is as of 9:00 am PDT.

🌊 BY THE WAY

  • Answer: Crowdfunding it is. 💰 And the global transaction value of crowdfunding exceeded $1 billion annually in 2021; and funds raised through crowdfunding grew nearly 34% last year (Fit Small Business)
  • 🎲 ICYMI. The game of tax: Using the tax code to your advantage (Finny Bites)
  • 🐷 I paid $103 for a cartoon pig NFT on the largest online marketplace for digital tokens. Now I don't know what to do with it (Business Insider)
  • 👎 19 weird crowdfunding campaigns that failed spectacularly (Visual Capitalist)
  • Finny lesson of the day: Thinking about investing in private companies via crowdfunding or as an angel investor? Take this lesson for some investing basics:

Finny is a financial education platform on a mission to make your money work for you. We offer a customized financial learning platform through bite-size, jargon-free lessons, money trends & insights to teams & companies.

The Gist is Finny's twice a week (Tues & Thurs) newsletter covering personal finance & investing insights and money trends. Finny does not offer investment and stock advice or endorsements. The editorial team: Austin Payne, Othmane Zizi, Chihee Kim.

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