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Thursday, 22 July 2021

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July 22, 2021 View online | Sign up
TOGETHER WITH Finny

Happy Thursday. Let's get right to the money topics for today:

  • Inflation climbs higher
  • Real estate FOMO
  • No, you don't have to be 50 to join AARP

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ECONOMY

Inflation climbs higher

Image source: Hedgeye

Consumers have become intimately familiar with the acronym CPI in 2021 as price inflation has crept its way into some of our most basic everyday necessities. And for the first time in a while, a record-breaking level of inflation is a real concern for many Americans and investors alike. 

The CPI report for June 2021 reported a 5.4% increase over the last 12 months and 0.9% for the month of June alone. That level of inflation, if maintained, would be the highest on record since 1990, 31 years ago.

But wasn't this... supposed to happen?

Inflation was expected this year as we recover from the pandemic. The markets needed a rebound back to normalcy, but certain sectors grabbed enough boards to put up an inflationary double-double by now. 

For example, travel-related expenses have skyrocketed, while a semiconductor chip shortage has contributed to a price hike of used cars.

Continuing shortages that are slowly being resolved, supply chain bottlenecks, demand outstripping supply, and international incongruencies in economies still constricted due to health-related restrictions all serve to create the numbers we're seeing. Some economists, along with even the report itself, took the time to denote pandemic-impacted sectors separately and remove them from certain calculations.

We don't have to panic just because we're on a historic pace at the moment though. However, it is worth noting that there are a few ongoing residual impacts of the pandemic that are lingering or proliferating to contribute to the rates we're seeing, and thus the concerns that this could be worse than transitory.

So, how to proceed as a consumer and an investor? 

  • Be objective. Sometimes, gullibility or deceit can disguise itself in the form of beliefs or knowledge, when in reality, no one ever knows for sure what's going to happen. Try to steer clear of any predictions or claims that involve certitudes, and don't go mortgaging your future on the idea that the dollar is going to collapse. 
  • Consider municipal bonds as part of your investing strategy. Because muni bonds offer higher yields than Treasuries and also are tax advantageous, they may be a good option to preserve your nest egg. Muni bonds don't incur federal tax on interest earned, and by investing in them, you may also be able to bypass state and local taxes, depending on where you live.
  • Think alternative investments. If you're concerned about the cost of living and don't want the value of your money to be eroded by inflation, consider some alternative investment strategies that provide additional diversification from stocks and bonds. Real estate, REITs, precious metals, commodities are examples of alternative investments. Like we often say here at Finny: when you own an asset that inflates, you outpace inflation.

πŸ“šNeed a digestible refresh on what inflation actually means? Take this 6-min lesson on it:

HOUSING

Real estate FOMO

Consumers have stacked up an extra $5.4 trillion in savings over the last year and a half, which is a number that amounts to about 6% of the world's globally annualized GDP as of late March. Undoubtedly, a bit of that money is in the hands of house-hungry Millennials, some of whom may feel they've been standing at the door of the homeowners club for over a decade now.

These extra savings, whether it be a result of government stimulus checks, lack of spending over the last 18 months due to the pandemic, or both, can be visibly seen searching for an entrance to the housing market, as the prices bear it out.

Savings, shortages, FOMO?

Image source: Bloomberg

According to Knight Frank, a real estate consulting firm, real estate prices have risen at least 10% in over 43 cities around the globe over the last year, with some of those locals harboring increases north of 20-30%. A post-pandemic rebound of sorts was to be expected, but it seems a robust recovery fueled by super-easy monetary policy and extra $5.4 trillion savings is well underway. 

As the generation meme'd for moving back in with their parents after college, Millennials are now exhibiting a kind of pent-up enthusiasm as they consider more space as well as longer-term financial investments. After what feels like years of missed opportunity, fear of missing out or FOMO has them feeling like it's time to pull the trigger on a home.

This effect has driven real estate prices beyond what buyers would, on average, be able to afford, resulting in a hot housing market at the head of the inflation train. And to note, only 47.9% of millennials owned homes as of the end of 2020, and this trails all other generations above them by at least 20-30%.

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MONEY SAVING TIP

No, you don't have to be 50 to join AARP

If you've gotten your first piece of AARP marketing mail already, you might've stopped to ask yourself, "wait... how old am I?" However, contrary to popular belief, you actually don't have to be 50 or older to join AARP. 

Despite the fact that they're oriented to helping people over the age of 50, anyone of any age can join for about $12-15 per year, and reap some of the benefits too. Sure, you might get a raised eyebrow from a friend or two if you're 25 with a red AARP card in your wallet, but you'll never have to worry about getting ID'd again.

Here are some noteworthy benefits you gain for joining:

  • Dining: 10-15% off at restaurants 
  • Travel: 15% off at 50+ popular hotels
  • Savings on prescriptions 
  • Identity: identity theft protection through their Fraud Watch Network

ASHU'S CORPORATE COLOR

Today's Movers & Shakers

  • Netgear is down 14% after the firm missed on both sales and revenue figures while providing lower future guidance
  • Unilever beat the street on profits and sales but said that higher input costs (commodities) will hurt their margins on a full-year basis
  • Whirlpool beat the street and raised guidance as consumer demand remains strong
  • Dow Inc (+1.7%) sees stronger demand and pricing power as it beats the street numbers
  • ATT (+1.2%) as the telcom firm beat sales and earnings
  • DR Horton (-4.34%), the home builder, in spite of beating on profits and stronger guidance; the slowdown in its homebuilding driven by high lumber prices and the shortage of labor forced it to take fewer orders for new homes in recent months
  • Southwest fell 2.4% after it reported higher than expected losses but the airline expects to be profitable for the whole year thanks in part due to strong US domestic travel, where SW has most of its business
  • Crocs (+8%) beat on revenue and profits
  • Las Vegas Sands (-2.2%), the casino group, missed on revenues and profits

This commentary is as of 8:59 am EDT.

✨ TRENDING ON FINNY & BEYOND

  • Will a swimming pool help or hurt your property value? (NYT)
  • U.S. life expectancy dropped by 1.5 years in 2020, the biggest drop since WWII (CNBC)
  • Finny lesson of the day. Since we talk about municipal bonds today, let's review what it means to invest in bonds, including munis:

Finny is a personal finance education start-up offering free, game-based personalized financial education, a supportive discussion forum, and simple stock and fund tools (aka Finnyvest).  Our mission is to make learning about all things money fun and easy! 

The Gist is Finny's newsletter to our community members who are looking to make and save more money, protect their finances and be their own bosses! Finny does not offer investment or stock advice. The Gist is sent twice a week (Tues & Thurs). The editorial team: Austin Payne and Chihee Kim. Thanks to Ashu Singh for Today's Movers & Shakers.

*Sponsors or advertisers offer unique consumer services.  We're thankful for their sponsorship to enable Finny to offer free financial education. Here's our advertiser disclosure

If you have any feedback for us or are interested in sponsoring The Gist, please send us an email to feedback@askfinny.com.

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