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Thursday, 24 February 2022

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February 24, 2022 View online | Sign up
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TOGETHER WITH Finny

Good day. We're officially in S&P 500 correction territory, which is a 10-20% dip in prices from the index's most recent high. For every time the S&P 500 has dipped at least 10% since 1980, can you guess how much the index was up by (on average) one year later? a. 12%, b. 25%, c. 37%. Follow the wave 🌊 below for the answer.

🔎 Zooming in on the money topics for today:

  • What do current US bond yields mean?
  • The #1 money bias to avoid? 
  • An updated version of the best savings rates available

BOND MARKETS

What do current bond yields mean?

What could bonds possibly have to do with my stocks? Why should we care about those boring things at all? Newcomers to investing are often caught off guard by and bombarded with the reality of the bond markets, and how they unsuspectingly have plenty of bearing on our finances.

Bond yields, namely the yield on the 10-year Treasury, are one of many indicators that analysts have come to use as economic barometers of sorts. So, why exactly is that? What influence do bond yields have on us?

The skinny on the 10-year Treasury 

What is it? Government bonds are loans that investors make to the government in exchange for regular interest payments. The 10-year Treasury is a type of government bond that is backed by the full faith and credit of the US government, guaranteeing regular interest payments plus repayment of the borrowed money in 10 years’ time. The US government issues other similar fixed income securities but with differing maturity dates and yields.

What about the yield? It’s the current rate bonds would pay investors if they bought them today. And the yield directly influences other interest rates, such as for mortgages. A rule of thumb to remember: a bond’s yield and price are inversely related. When demand is high and Treasury prices rise, yields fall, and vice versa.

What does this have to do with me?

Bonds are one of many indicators that analysts have come to use as economic barometers of sorts. Here are a few ways bond yields can subsequently impact the overall economy, and eventually, our finances:

  • Interest rates: Usually, if the 10-year yield falls, mortgage rates fall as well, which could strengthen the housing market and therefore the economy. If the future becomes uncertain and investors get worried about the economy, they look for safe-haven investments, which causes Treasury prices to rise and rates to decline. 
  • Borrowing and growth:  The 10-year Treasury yield also influences a company’s borrowing rate. The higher it is, the more expensive it is for a company, potentially reducing their options to grow. When yields increase, it’s more expensive for companies to borrow and expand—serving as somewhat of a downer on equities.
  • Your brokerage account: Rising yields usually also mean that investors are looking for investments with higher returns but it could also stoke fears that could pull capital away from the market—just as we’ve been seeing these days. The end result is that eventually, bond yields will inevitably exert influence over the markets, and whether or not your portfolio is nicked depends on its holdings.

Source—CNBC

So what do you do with this? 

Add the 10-year Treasury to your watchlist and give it a glance every now and then while keeping up with the headlines, and you’ll be more in the know and smarter than most other investors just for knowing what’s causing your tech stocks to drop or the rate on that mortgage you were eyeing to rise.

💡 Here's a related lesson on this topic:

MONEY TIPS

The #1 bias to avoid right now is herd mentality

Source—Giphy

There are a lot of hiccups you could make with your money, like buying Gamestop stock at $325 or a new car on a whim. Some mistakes we make willingly, maybe because it’s fun or it’s worth the cost, but it’s often the ones we’re unaware of that can hurt the wallet most. 

One of the most prominent examples of this behavior is herd mentality. It’s a risky habit as following the herd and buying $SQUID (Squid Game token) at a fraction of a cent could’ve made you rich whereas buying it at 69 cents might have left you broke.

How to avoid following the herd in the wrong way:

  • Imagine your end goal first: Before making any decision with money, ask yourself how this aligns with what your end goal is. Whether it be short-term, intermediate, or retirement, how will this decision potentially impact that?
  • Set barriers to unnecessary action: And we've shared this before. Take your brokerage app off your home screen and turn off your notifications—whatever you need to do to prevent yourself from keeping an ear to the markets 24/7 that may lead to rash decisions (i.e., panic selling and then not getting back into the markets!).
  • Invest with intentionality: Having an outline or predetermined allocation, either of dollars or percentages, can help guide you safely to financial freedom, and keep you from making some potentially harmful choices that can come as a result of herd mentality. 
  • Invest within your means: No investment could ever cause too much anxiety if it’s something you can afford to lose. This rings true with short-term trading especially, and if you find yourself fretting over every tick of the price, you’ve probably invested beyond your means. Only invest what you can afford to lose.
  • Risk management: Discernment is key, and although sometimes it can be a tough call, there are always indicators that can tell you a little about the odds of a good outcome. Even in situations where it’s hard to say if now is a good time to invest in X, Y or Z, we can always manage our risk by investing only what we’d be okay with losing.

🧠 Review a few concepts when it comes to the psychology in investing. These concepts may seem obvious, but not so much when panic settles in.

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BUDGETING & SAVING

An updated version of the best savings rates available

It’s been widely reported that Americans saved trillions of dollars during the pandemic, and this checks out considering the multiple spikes in personal savings rates we saw throughout the last couple years. But, where are they keeping that money?

Unfortunately for many, the answer would be in “high-yield savings accounts” that actually have an extremely low APY due to their recent drop. Banks drop rates alongside the Fed, which is great for borrowers but not so much for savers. While we encourage you to invest on top of saving, keeping a cushion is also important.

So, we scoured the market and here are the best savings rates available right now.

  • Affinity Federal Credit Union: 1% APY. For our readers in Minnesota, if you meet the eligibility requirements needed to join this credit union, it seems to offer one of the highest rates on the market for balances up to $25K. What’s also worth noting is that credit unions as a whole tend to offer higher rates than banks, so you should look into local offerings in your area. 
  • LendingClub: 0.65% APY. Lending Club is another all-in-one fintech service that’s entered the scene lately, and they just got their bank charter in 2020. Now, they’re offering 0.65% APY with no fees, and a minimum balance of just $2,500. 
  • Affirm: 0.65% APY. Isn’t that the buy now pay later app? Yes, and they’re not chartered to be a bank yet, and like many banking services, they rely on partner banks for financial services. Nevertheless, they’re offering an 0.65% APY with no minimum balance, and no fees.

SPONSORED BY CARIBOU

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Instantly access competitive rates in minutes. Save up to $100* on average a month and enjoy an APR as low as 1.99%+. Pre-Qualify online with no impact to your credit score++.

Refinance your auto loan today! 

🔥 TODAY'S MOVERS & SHAKERS

  • Hertz (+9%) missed on revenues but see a strong recovery in travel demand, while Booking Holdings (-11.4%), a travel booking site, is down despite strong quarterly earnings reports
  • Moderna (+11.4%) beat earnings estimates and moves forward with Phase 3 clinical trial for RSV (respiratory virus that causes common cold) vaccine candidate
  • Live Nation (+6.2%) on better than expected revenues
  • Gannett (-10.5%), the USA Today publisher, posted a wider loss and missed on revenue estimates
  • Alibaba (-4.1%) reported the slowest growth (ever) as it missed on revenues but beat on profit estimates
  • Norwegian Cruise Line (-7%) also reported a wider than expected loss 
  • Papa John’s (-2.2%) beat analyst estimates on profits and revenues with same-store sales surging 11% YoY

This commentary is as of 9:00 am PDT.

🌊 BY THE WAY

  • Answer: 25%. For every time the S&P 500 has dipped at least 10% since 1980, the index was higher one year later 90% of the time, and up 25% on average (Ryan Detrick of LPL)
  • reAlpha’s AI-chosen Airbnb properties have the potential to beat long-term rental property revenue by 70%+ per property. Become a shareholder in their entire business model right here.
  • 💭 Quote of the day: “Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful” - Warren Buffett
  • 📉 Did you panic sell during the latest stock market dip? Here’s when to get back in (CNBC)
  • 🪙 Time in the market, not timing, is what matters (Bites)
  • Finny lesson of the day: Learn some facts and figures about bear markets & volatility. Earn 10 Dibs (or gold coins) for every correct answer, then redeem them for rewards.

Caribou Disclosures

* Savings may result from a lower interest rate, longer term, or both. There is no guarantee of savings. Your actual savings, if any, may vary based on interest rates, the repayment term, the amount financed, and other factors.

+ To check the rates and terms you qualify for, we conduct a soft credit pull that will not affect your credit score. However, if you choose a loan product and continue your application, we or one of our lending partners will request your full credit report from one or more consumer reporting agencies, which is considered a hard credit pull and may affect your credit score.  

++ Social security number is required should you choose to move forward in the loan application process.

About Finny

Finny is a financial education platform on a mission to make your money work for you. We offer a personalized learning experience through bite-size, jargon-free lessons, money trends & insights. We also offer our financial education platform to Teams & Companies.

The Gist is Finny's twice a week (Tues & Thurs) newsletter covering personal finance & investing insights and money trends. Finny does not offer investment and stock advice or endorsements. The editorial team: Chihee KimAustin Payne. Today's Movers & Shakers is brought to you by Ashu Singh.

*Sponsors. We're thankful for their support as we work to make basic financial education easy and accessible. If you're interested in sponsoring The Gist, please reach out to us. And if you have any feedback for us, please contact us.

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