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πŸ’° Should you invest in something you don't understand?

Thursday, 3 February 2022

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February 03, 2022 View online | Sign up
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Happy Thursday all. Can you guess what percent of US adults invest in crypto, according to CNBC? a. 1%, b. 10%, c. 20%. Follow the wave 🌊 below for the answer.

Here are our personal finance topics for today 👇

  • What happened to all the SPACs?
  • Should you invest in crypto if you don't understand it? 
  • Insights to become financially smarter

INVESTING

What happened to all the SPACs?

When Reddit temporarily became the market’s sweetheart last year, SPACs were undoubtedly one of the trend’s best men. Unfortunately, their union has been short-lived, and it seems as if the honeymoon phase has come to an end for both diamond hands and their right-hand man.

The SPAC boom, and then… bust?

In 2019, just 59 US companies went public via a SPAC. The following year, that number jumped to 248, and in 2021? A whooping 613. Of all US IPOs last year, 63% of them did so via a SPAC, and nearly half of all SPACs that went public since 2003 took place last year.

This year is looking to be a much milder year, with 23 SPAC IPOs to date, cooling off to near 2020 levels. This dwindling momentum has incidentally coincided with accelerated losses and increasing headwinds within the SPAC sector of the market, as it seems the ephemeral nature of trends may be taking its toll on the blank check IPO.

What happened?

While there’s no singular reason we can point to as the SPAC buster, there are a few observations we can make.

Regulation. The SEC is already ramping up its enforcement actions. That may be why we're seeing a growing number of SPAC deals falling through before the listed shell merges with its acquisition target. Ten companies have backed out of SPAC merger agreements since November. Sponsors are also being advised by their lawyers to more thoroughly vet a potential target's business and to increase transparency around conflicts of interest, given the increase in litigations.

Conflict of interest? SPACs involve two main transactions—the initial IPO and then the merger—as well as two sets of players with starkly different outcomes. And when it comes down to it, retail investors may be the ones left holding the bag and diluted, as outlined in the academic study A Sober Look at SPACs.

Where's the ROI? The ROI has proven to be abysmal in numerous cases, with countless examples of companies down more than 50% from their typical $10 starting point.

We can look at countless examples like $CLOV, $SOFI, $LOTZ, $MILE, $SKLZ, $DKNG, $OPEN, $DM, and the list goes on seemingly forever. Although the aggregate market conditions haven't helped, you can't help but notice that all of these companies share the commonality of joining the market via SPAC.

Going forward

The future of SPACs is uncertain, but probably not as dismal as it may look right now. As is with any emerging trend in finance, blank check companies seem to be following a similar path to many other concepts that involve a frenzy, a reality check, and hopefully a better future after we’ve gotten a better hold on the market. 

🔗 Finny lesson related to this topic: 

CRYPTOCURRENCY

Should you invest in crypto if you don't understand it?

It’s been said that you should “never invest in a business you don’t understand,” and that “if you can’t explain it simply, you don’t understand it well enough.” Those are quotes from Warren Buffett and Albert Einstein, so surely all crypto investors understand what exactly it is they are investing in. Right? 

Most actually don’t understand crypto

  • About half of the respondents to a recent crypto survey said that they’d heard of popular coins like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Dogecoin, but only 16% said they were “familiar” with them. 
  • In addition, 61% of people who have heard of various cryptocurrencies said they had little to no comprehension of how they worked or what their purpose was. 
  • Only 14% of those who said they were familiar with crypto claimed to understand “very well” how they worked.

When new technology like this gets introduced, it can take years for society to become acclimated to it and integrate it into their lives, let alone understand it. The internet has been in widespread use for well over a decade now, and most still don’t actually understand how it works.

And while it's impressive to have in-depth knowledge of the inner workings of each and every company you invest in, the reality is that it’s impractical. Not having a detailed understanding shouldn't deter us from making sound investment decisions. 

The basics and the risk

Cryptocurrency isn't your typical investment, but it's similar in terms of utility to the average investor. Its uniqueness comes with unique risks, and of course its own terminologies too.

So, for those curious about it, we'll distill it down to a few essentials you should have a deeper understanding of.

  • Volatility: Crypto is highly volatile. Reasons for this vary by coin, and are influenced by typical factors like supply and demand and the fact that its intrinsic value is based on user perception and media hype, in some cases. 
  • Purpose: Each crypto project has its own goal, and their corresponding coins exist as incentives for the validators who support their decentralized system. You don’t need to understand every crypto’s mission statement, but at least get the gist of the ones you want to invest in. 
  • Regulation: Crypto is an asset for now, and you will pay capital gains taxes on it if applicable. Outside of that, oversight and regulation are limited but changing. 
  • Security: Crypto exchanges often ensure your dollars on the platform, but not your crypto. So, there’s a slight risk you could lose your crypto in the event of a hack. This is the risk of keeping your coins in a hot wallet, and you should understand the difference between that and cold storage before investing.

🔗 Finny lesson related to this topic:

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MONEY TIPS

Insights to be financially smarter

Personal finance is a tricky thing for the simple reasons that life is unpredictable and people want different things. Despite this though, money makes the world go 'round so here we are attempting to give everyone a new insight or two—some obvious and some not—that could help you become financially smarter:

  • Inflation's impact isn't the same across all assets: Average inflation is estimated to be around 2% annually, but this paints a very obscure picture. This is an aggregate calculation, and the reality is that assets inflate much more than that under the right conditions. The average inflation on housing from 1967 to 2021 was double the usual 2% level, and years like 2021 show us catalysts that can take it even higher. When you own something that inflates, you can outpace inflation. When you own money that inflates... you lose buying power. 
  • Some debts may never be repaid: Student loan forgiveness, eviction bans, stimulus checks, forbearances, and exponentially increasing national debt levels. Warren Buffet isn’t the only expert suggesting all of this will never be repaid, and it’s perhaps more likely we see a new Bretton Woods moment than the repayment of colossal debt levels. Own something other than debt.
  • You can't save your way to wealth. Invest your way to wealth: Money hanging around a savings account in today's environment is yielding a negative real return. Getting smarter financially is about education. Learn about investing, time horizon, asset classes and taxes to invest your way to wealth.
  • Making more money is a lot harder than lowering your expenses: You probably know some people who are always clamoring to earn more money but still spend moola like there's no tomorrow. We're simply stating the obvious here, but compelled to state it nonetheless. 
  • The Rule of 72: This simple rule can be used to project how long (in years) it could take for an investment today to double. For example, $250 today might be worth $4,000 in your retirement. How? Divide the number 72 by the assumed investment appreciation rate of say 8%, to get to the # of years for your asset to double in value. This comes out to 9 years. Then, assuming you're 30 years old, a $250 investment will be worth give-or-take $4,000 in retirement.

🔗 Finny lesson related to this topic:

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📈 TODAY'S MOVERS & SHAKERS

  • Meta Platforms or Facebook (-23%) as it had its first quarterly decline in daily active users on record; it missed on profits and issued a cautious guidance
  • Snap (-20.5%) and Pinterest (-7.7%) as a result of Meta's results; both companies will report earnings after today's market close
  • Spotify (-13.4%) on weaker subscriber growth forecast, despite beating top and bottom-line estimates
  • PayPal (-4%) continued lower today after missing user growth targets and on weaker guidance
  • Honeywell (-5.8%) missed revenues estimates due to supply chain issues and other factors, even as it beat on profits

This commentary is as of 8:30 am PDT. 

🌊 BY THE WAY

  • Answer: 10% of those surveyed by CNBC said they’re invested in cryptocurrency, ranking the digital coins fourth after real estate, stocks, mutual funds and bonds (CNBC)
  • 💾 Newsweek wrote in 1995: "Why the Internet Will Fail" (The Hustle)
  • 🌳 The crypto decision tree—to invest or not to invest? (Bites)
  • Finny lesson of the day: Are taxes on your mind? Let's review the basics of capital gains & losses:


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Finny is a financial education platform on a mission to make your money work for you. We offer a personalized learning experience through bite-size, jargon-free lessons, money trends & insights. We also offer our financial education platform to select Teams & Companies.

The Gist is Finny's twice a week (Tues & Thurs) newsletter covering personal finance & investing insights and money trends. Finny does not offer investment and stock advice. The editorial team: Chihee Kim, Austin Payne. Movers & Shakers is brought to you by Ashu Singh.

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